Airline Cargo Revenue: The Economics of Belly Cargo
Scope & Methodology
This article examines the financial and operational characteristics of cargo carried in passenger aircraft bellies, with particular focus on how belly cargo economics affect airport finance professionals. Data sources include IATA cargo market analyses, FAA aircraft performance guidance, airline earnings releases filed with the SEC, and published aircraft specifications from manufacturers and industry analysts. All monetary values are reported in the currency and year cited in the source document.
Bottom Line Up Front
Belly cargoâfreight carried in the lower holds of passenger aircraftâgenerates revenue at near-pure margins because the aircraft's major operating costs are already allocated to passenger operations (World Bank Air Cargo Ch. 4). Newer widebody aircraft (787, A350) provide 15â20 tonnes of maximum structural belly capacity per Aircraft Commerce analysis; actual available cargo space is reduced by passenger baggage, with typical available belly freight estimated at 2,500â18,000 lbs (1â8 tonnes) depending on passenger load and route. Boeing's 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast projects belly cargo will carry 45% of global air cargo by 2033. For airports, belly cargo generates no direct incremental landing fee revenue but affects route economics. Aircraft type, route length, and available cargo volume are the key variables.
What Belly Cargo Is and Why It Matters to Airports
Belly cargo refers to freight and mail transported in the lower-deck holds of passenger aircraft. After checked baggage is loaded, remaining space is available for revenue cargo—palletized or containerized freight sold through the airline's cargo division or third-party freight forwarders.
For airports, belly cargo does not appear separately in fee structures. Landing fees are calculated on aircraft weight regardless of cargo composition, and terminal rents are assessed on leased square footage regardless of freight volume. The economics of belly cargo, however, influence airline route profitability in ways relevant to airport finance professionals evaluating air service development, incentive programs, and cargo facility investment.
Scale of the Cargo Business
Global air cargo revenues represent approximately 15% of total airline industry revenues of roughly $1 trillion. For context, IATA reported global cargo revenues of $101 billion in 2019, a pandemic peak of $210 billion in 2021, and $138 billion in 2023.
The COVID-19 pandemic changed air cargo composition: with passenger flights grounded, dedicated freighters carried approximately 60–70% of air cargo traffic between 2020 and 2023, according to Boeing's 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast. Before the pandemic, dedicated freighters and belly cargo were roughly balanced at 40% and 60%, respectively (Boeing 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast).
As of April 2025, belly-hold cargo capacity had reached a post-2019 record high, rising 6.9% year-over-year, according to IATA's monthly Air Cargo Market Analysis.
Belly Cargo's Share of the Market: Two Competing Forecasts
Boeing and Airbus hold differing views on the long-term belly-freighter split. This distinction affects airport cargo facility planning, as it influences the proportion of cargo expected to move through passenger terminals.
Boeing's 2024 World Air Cargo Forecast projects that dedicated freighters will carry 55% of air cargo traffic and passenger aircraft bellies 45%—a higher freighter share than pre-pandemic levels. Boeing attributes this to factors including the slower recovery of China–U.S. passenger service and cargo markets that passenger routes do not currently serve.
Airbus projects a higher belly-cargo share, driven by the enhanced belly capacity of newer widebody types such as the A350 and 787 families.
Both forecasts agree on one point: 787-9 (~15–17 tonnes) carries more belly freight than the 767 (~10–12 tonnes est.) it often replaces, illustrating capacity gains from fleet modernization (Aircraft Commerce).
Why Belly Cargo Is Nearly Pure Margin for Passenger Airlines
A key economic characteristic of belly cargo is that passenger airlines incur the aircraft's major operating costs—crew, fuel for the flight, landing fees, navigation charges, aircraft ownership, and maintenance—whether or not cargo is loaded. The World Bank's air cargo operating cost analysis notes: "for passenger airlines, the transport costs for cargo carried as belly cargo is generally limited to the incremental cost for ground handling and fuel".